In the euro area, focus will be on the ECB meeting. The few monthly economic data releases due in the week will outline a modest increase in orders and industrial output in Germany, and confirm a sharp drop in GDP in 4Q 2012, as well as of the February PMIs for the euro area as a whole. We also expect retail sales and the year-on-year PPI to show a decline……
Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from ETFWorld
Click here to register for your free copy
Several important events are due this week in the United States. Focus will be on the February Employment Report, which should highlight an accelerating employment trend and a possible drop in the unemployment rate (barring a sharp rise in the participation rate). The non- manufacturing ISM is expected to show a modest correction in February compared to January, but should keep indicating expansion in the service sector. The January trade balance is estimated to show a widening of the deficit, after a very strong correction in December. The Beige Book should confirm the expansion of activity and improving labour market conditions.
Monday 4 March
Producer prices should come in 0.7% m/m higher, from -0.2% m/m in December. The year- on-year PPI would in any case slow to 1.9% from 2.2% previously. In all the main countries, prices rose significantly in the month. However, surveys point to an easing of pressures upstream of the production chain in the months ahead.
Tuesday 5 March
Euro area
A slight upward revision of the February composite and services PMIs cannot be ruled out, to 47.5 from 47.3 as per the flash estimate (in any case down sharply from 48.6 in January). PMI levels remain compatible with a contraction in GDP at the beginning of 2013, albeit smaller than at the end of 2012.
Retail sales could rise by as much as 1% mom in January, after falling by -0.9% m/m in December. The jump will be led by the strong +3.1% mom seen in Germany. In year-on-year terms, the drop would slow to -2% from -3.6% previous. Yet, confidence surveys are still failing to indicate a trend reversal in household spending.
United States
In February, the non-manufacturing ISM should be down to 54.5 from 55.2 in January. The January survey had outlined a weakening of the activity and orders components, which in any case remained very high (at 56.4 and 54.4 respectively in January). The correction could be tied to the enforcement of tax hikes at the beginning of the year, and may continue in February. February data should in any case confirm a positive pace of growth in the services sector.
Wednesday 6 March
Euro area
A sharp drop in GDP growth, to -0.6% q/q, should be confirmed in 4Q 2012, placing the year-on-year contraction at -0.9% y/y. Once again, domestic demand is expected to slow significantly (consumer spending -0.4% q/q, investments -1.2% q/q). The contribution of net exports will be virtually zero (after two-and-a-half years in positive territory). The GDP contraction should be limited to one or two tenths in 1Q 2013.
United States
The ADP estimate of non-farm payrolls is placed by consensus at 162k, from 192k the previous month.
The Fed will release its Beige Book in preparation of the FOMC meeting of 19-20 March. The document should report that economic activity is improving in most sectors and regions. Activity should pick up in the manufacturing sector in particular, after a temporary stagnation in 4Q 2012. The gradual improvement in labour market conditions should be confirmed. The Beige Book is not expected to change the moderate growth pick-up scenario included in the Fed’s projections.
Thursday 7 March
Euro area
At the regular monthly meeting of the Governing Council, the ECB is likely to lower its growth and inflation estimates for 2013, also in the wake of the appreciation of the exchange rate, which accelerated in January. A cut of the refi rate remains a close call, but in any case is not imminent and is unlikely to involve also the deposit rate.
Germany. The factory orders index is forecast to rise by 0.9% m/m in January, broadly in line with the December rate of 0.8% m/m. The year-on-year rate should be back in positive territory for the first time in over a year, at 1.7%, from -1.8% in December. A drag on orders will once again come from the other euro area countries, whereas a positive contribution will be made by non-euro area countries.
United States
The trade deficit is expected to increase in January to -43 billion dollars, from -38 billion in December. The December reading had outlined an extraordinary narrowing of the deficit, by around 10 billion dollars. In January, on the other hand, exports should contract somewhat (mostly due to the civil aviation industry), as opposed to a sharper increase in imports, in the energy sector in particular.
Productivity growth in 4Q 2012 should be negative by -1.8% q/q ann., revised from -2% q/q ann. following the upside revision of the GDP estimate. Unit labour cost should be of revised to +4.2% q/q from 4.5% q/q.
The Fed will release data on fund flows in 4Q 2012. The figures should show a further improvement in household budgets, with net wealth on the rise due to the increased value of real estate and financial investments, as well as to decreasing liabilities.
Friday 8 March
Euro area
Germany. Industrial output is forecast to increase by 0.4% m/m in January, approximately in line with the December reading (0.3%). The year-on-year rate is also expected to change little, to -1.2% from -1.1% the previous month. For the time being, the downtrend continues, but the signs of a recovery outlined by the surveys and by data on orders should trigger a recovery in productive activity already in the months ahead.
United States
The February Employment Report should show a 185k increase in non-farm payrolls, higher than the +157k reading in January, back to levels at least in line with the trend of 2012 (180k). Job growth in the private sector should amount to 190k. Particularly bad weather conditions on the East Coast in the central part of the month may have had negative repercussions on the employment trend, but February should bring a significant job creation in the private services sector, which in January grew well below the recent average rate, scoring an increase of only 130k (average over the previous three months: 191k). The unemployment
rate should drop to 7.8% from 7.9% in January. In the months between November and January, the survey of households revealed an overall loss of six thousand jobs, as opposed to a positive change of +600k as surveyed among businesses: therefore, the more volatile households’ survey will probably show a sharper rise in employment levels. The unemployment rate could therefore drop even assuming an increase in the overall workforce in line with those recorded in the previous two months (168k on average in December- January). Hourly wages should confirm their recent trend, with an average monthly increase of 0.2% m/m. Data should confirm an employment trend which is adding just under 200k jobs a month, consistent with a moderately faster improvement in labour market conditions with respect to 2012. The Fed will gradually shift its focus from the unemployment rate to employment data, as an upswing in the participation rate is likely to prove imminent.
Appendix
Analyst Certification
The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.
Important Disclosures
This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).
Valuation Methodology
Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.
Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.
Source: ETFWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department
Subscribe to Our Newsletter
